Beer Is The New Climate Change Casualty

by Paige Donner

Brace yourselves, your preferred cold brew may soon become a hot commodity.

The price of beer is set to double, triple, even quadruple in the coming years. That’s what a team of international scientists have predicted when they studied computer models looking at a predictive global temperature rise on three areas: climate, crops and economics.

How does beer factor into this scenario? Beer is, of course, made from barley. Only about 17% of the world’s barley production is currently used to make beer, the rest going to animal feed.  But with a predicted temperature rise of 1.5°C (to up to 4°C in worst case scenarios) in the coming century, barley production is set to decline by up to 17%, thus driving up prices – by as much as 193% in Ireland.

The full STUDY can be accessed HERE

Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme  drought and heat
Wei Xie, Wei Xiong, Jie Pan, Tariq Ali1, Qi Cui,, Dabo Guan, Jing Meng, NathanielD.Mueller, 
Erda Lin, and Steven J. Davis
Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes
has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes
projected under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions. Decreases in
the global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in barley used to make beer and ultimately result in dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption (for example, 32% in Argentina) and increases in beer prices (for example, + 193% in
Ireland). Although not the most concerning impact of future climate change, climate-related weather extremes may threaten the availability and economic accessibility of beer.

So if beer is your beverage of choice, especially during the festive holiday season, drink up and enjoy, while you still can!

Beer will go the way of bees, chocolate, coffee and wine.
More Reading:  Smithsonian.com

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Related:  Wine And Climate Change – documentary film by Paige Donner

 

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